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El Niño expected to smash heat records in 2024

El Nino Phenomenon Causes Drought In Tangerang
A man squats on cracked, dry ground. Dead, dry fish lay on the ground where a pond used to be. | Photo by Kevin Herbian/NurPhoto via Getty Images

There’s a 90 percent chance that global average surface temperatures will reach a record high for the year leading up to June 2024, according to new research published today in the journal Scientific Reports. Some places will be more sweltering than others, particularly in parts of Asia. The heat has cascading effects, like raising the risk of drought and wildfire.

A weather pattern known as El Niño is to blame. El Niño is part of a natural, cyclical phenomenon, but climate change heightens the stakes by raising baseline temperatures before El Niño swoops in to push the mercury up even higher.

“We have seen that this type of warming can cause a lot of troubles in the world, so we want to give people a heads up,” says Deliang Chen, one…

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